Posted by S.D. Livingston

It was tempting to title this post “The Rise and Fall of New Indie Books” but that doesn’t sit right. Mainly because I don’t think the self-publishing revolution is going away any time soon (thank goodness).

What I’m really pondering is the deluge of new titles readers face, not the method itself. And when it comes to sheer numbers, I predict we’ll soon see a natural ebb cycle occur, with a period of steady decline in new indie titles. Here’s why:

1. Self-publishing’s not a get-rich-quick scheme

Writers pursue publication for plenty of reasons: the thrill of seeing their name on a cover, to share information, or because they’re dreaming of fame and fortune. Now that many barriers to self-publishing have fallen, it seems everyone’s grabbing a pick and shovel and striking out for the perceived gold fields that are sure to reward even the most hastily assembled excuse for a manuscript.

But it just ain’t so, pardner. Whether authors opt for ebooks, POD, or full-on self-publishing, sourcing everything from editors to distributors themselves, building a career is a long hard slog. And just like the real gold rush it’s only the hardiest, most determined ’49ers that will stick around.

We’re not talking about subjective things like style or genre here. One person’s dreck is another’s Philip Roth, and long may it ever be so. But I predict that, when the payoff doesn’t come quickly or easily, we’ll see a sharp decline in the number of new titles being thrown at the self-publishing wall in hopes that something will stick.

2. Virtual shelf space won’t last forever (at least, not for free)

I’ve heard it said more and more often lately that ebooks are forever, in the sense that they’ll remain in virtual catalogues and bookshelves indefinitely and always be open to discovery. I’m not convinced.

Just like legacy agents and publishers, online retailers and distributors are businesses. In order to survive they need to turn a profit, and a portion of their operating budget gets allocated to server space, backups, site maintenance, and all those other invisible but costly elements of running a website. None of that comes for free.

Admittedly, it’s much cheaper to provide a book page on a website than it is to provide physical space for that same book in dozens of stores. But it’s still not free and I predict that, given the dizzying pace of new releases, online retailers will hit a tipping point. They simply won’t be able to host the millions (or possibly billions) of stagnant titles that have never sold a copy and never hit the minimal profit threshold to justify their inclusion.

When will that tipping point come? Probably not for several years, but I think it’s inevitable. In fact, I’ll peer just a little deeper into my crystal ball and prognosticate that the day will come when maintaining space in both ebook and POD catalogues will require a minimal fee to offset web costs if no copies are sold after a set period, perhaps a year. When that happens, or if indie authors perceive it as too onerous, new releases are bound to decline.

Do I believe these changes will hurt the glorious opportunities self-publishing offers today? Not at all. I think they’re a natural part of a thriving ecosystem in which the reader remains firmly in charge. Even if that means the tide goes out once in a while.